Title The Relationship Between Export, Import, and Economic Growth in The Developing Countries: A Panel Cointegration and Panel Causality Analysis
Authors Nurgün TOPALLI, Mehmet ALAGÖZ
Abstract In this study, the relationship between export, import and economic growth is investigated in India, Brazil, South Africa, Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, Republic of Korea, Argentina, Greece, Mexico and Turkey for the period 1976-2014, using panel cointegration test, dynamic SUR and panel causality analysis. The causal relationship between variables is analyzed by panel VECM, Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) causality test and Canning and Pedroni (2008) causality test. Dynamic SUR results indicate that in these countries the increase in export by 1% raises GDP almost by 0.24% positively. Furthermore, increase in import by 1% raises GDP almost by 0.34%. According to panel VECM, Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) causality test and Canning and Pedroni (2008) causality test results, it is observed that in the long run there is bi-directional causality between export and economic growth. Smilarly, it is found bi-directional causality between import and economic growth. The results of this study support that the feed-back hypothesis is valid in these countries.
Keywords Export, import, economic growth, panel cointegration, dynamic SUR, panel causality
Journal IJSES - International Journal of Social and Economic Sciences
Issue Issue 2
Page 122-126
Year 2015
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